daily noise 2.15.2011

  • mostly down
  • PBR, BSBR, NOK (good effort Tim Seymour), BCS up strongly
energy:
JOGMEC to test enhanced oil recovery in Vietnam an example of carbon dioxide injection. So is Dr. Suzuki’s concern of protoplasm conversion of carbon dioxide into methane relevant at such depths? There is lots of ice methane anyway at lower depths (a good source of fuel). Increase oil extraction and reduce carbon dioxide: sounds good.
Shell’s alarmist ways seem out of touch whenever the media get emotional it usually means they are wrong.
China:
Any Company That Imports From China Is About To Get Hit By Higher Costs as bored as I am with reading yet another article on China, this one is actually pretty good. China’s suppliers seem to be getting hit on all sides.
All this blame China press ignores, of course, the profoundly moronic government policy of using food for fuel. Marxist David Harvey’s eminently readable book, The Enigma of Capital, treats this subject exceedingly well. 18th century Britain was faced with resource limits because food and fuel (biomass) both came from the land. After 1780, coal came about which solved this limitation. Oil then followed.

“I make this observation in order to point up the obvious stupidity of trying to respond to supposed contemporary oil shortages by resort to ethanol production, which takes energy production back on to the land (using for the most part more energy in its production than it actually makes) with immediate and serious impacts on food grain prices. The perversity of a policy that takes us right back into the energy versus food trap of eighteenth-century Britain is nothing short of shocking. How did this come about?”

The answer? A 

“powerful agribusiness lobby which dominates the very undemocratic US Senate (where small rural states command 60 percent of the votes) and which has long been one of the most powerful lobbies in Washington (the high level of agricultural subsidies in the US have been one of the most contentious issues in WTO negotiations with the rest of the world). The subsequently utterly predictable rise in food grain prices was also good news for agribusiness even as New Yorkers suddenly found their bagels increasing in price by 50 per cent. The consequent exacerbation of world hunger is no joke.” 

This would also explain why Brazilian ethanol is excluded from the US. So, thank you powerful agribusiness lobby, from 44 million newly impoverished people of the world— and nice move getting the hapless Financial Post to carry the opinion of Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics who blames it on hoarding in China, that was smooth and very novel. By the way, Number of Chronically Hungry People Nears 1 Billion. There is much to blame China about, but in this instance it is understandable, in a country which managed to starve off over 30 million by its brilliant government policy under Mao, why subsequent government officials might be touchy about the subject of starvation. In contrast, how can one defend the policy of ethanol? Sometimes one needs a Marxists like David Harvey to articulate the problems with capitalism. The Enigma of Capital, by the way, is a sheer pleasure to read, unlike many of the recent crop of books on the financial crisis.
India:
All that inflation seems to have cooled interest in luxury housing: Luxury Housing Boom Takes a Breather— alternately, if 40% of the units are unsold, maybe you overbuilt?
the dismal shore of Acheron:
“I put on my Vancouver real-estate price calculator and made a guess… I had guessed over 10 times too much.” | Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive so you can be comforted that the real estate bubble in Canada is going to end well when prices a few hours away are $50,000-$120,000 versus $1M-$2M for comparable properties. Its a good thing that those last marginal buyers can’t arbitrage or look up historical prices. Meanwhile, ignore California while you bid above asking: Southern California Home Prices Drop to 18-Month Low – Bloomberg.
leftover lint:
Regarding my earlier post on the financials and whether the 13F crowd have got it right (if inflation and interest rates are going up), the bond market seems to be saying no: Bond Market to Fed.

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