A change in AAPL

AAPL is a good summary of the entire market at the moment as it has been in an upward channel since September, it had hit its upper parallel in late January and is now nearly at its lower parallel.

We see the same sort of pattern in ABNB, AMD, AMZN, NFLX, and PTON, at least in the sense that they are now near their lower parallel.

Despite the rise in yields, there have been some breakouts: BIDU up 133% in 3 months, JPM, LYFT, QS with a sizable bounce, while XLE threatens its June highs.

bubbles away

But with the rise in yields the tone of the market has seen a few more negative days of late with some charts breaking down. BE is -28% off its peak and sliced through its lower parallel without hesitation, BLDP is -22% off its peak, FCEL -30%, BLNK -23% off its double top, BNDX is back to where it was 9 months ago, BYND has filled its gap and is now -27% of its peak, GLD cannot hold its median line even in a downward channel, GME is at $40 now, over $410 from its peak last month, JNJ breached its lower parallel, as did NIO. TSLA continues to drift lower after breaching its lower parallel last week (along with its twin PLUG).

Weak issues have not recovered: CHD continues grinding lower, COST, FB, MA, MRK, PFE, and PG continue eroding while ZM looks to be topping out and resuming its downward channel as $450 might have been its upper parallel.

All in all it does not feel like a market that is generally going up. Many issues have topped out and look to be breaching their lower parallel soon (if they have not already done so). There are pockets of euphoria but they seem to be dwindling. JPM and XLE make some sense from a low base but BIDU and LYFT seem more like the last of the bubble stocks that are rising. As 10 year treasuries breached 1.3%, with expectations of 2% or more within the year, equities look to be on thin ice.

Then again, if things were rational bitcoin would be falling with rising yields. Instead, they continue in their own bubble with $57k breached recently.

Still, the major money flows seem to be reflected in AAPL, not Bitcoin. As both PLUG and TSLA have broken down from their 2 month stall pattern on the downside since my last chart review, the spectacle of seeing DASH > SHW will likely be more unusual going forward.

Leave a comment