leader?While the old leaders like AAPL, AMZN, FB, MSFT or TSLA are decidedly flattish (they can never be permitted to fall of course but they look rather anaemic), new issues seem to have attracted a bid this month as fuel cell names like BE, PLUG, BLDP and a weird mix of names such as BYND,… Continue reading New leadership
a breakout that failed?As critical as a breakout from a wedge formation might be, the failed breakout is even more interesting, particularly in a name subject to so much option activity as TSLA. A multitude of positive catalysts failed this quarter so it was odd to say the least to see positive price action covering… Continue reading Failed breakout from wedge in TSLA could be interesting
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There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.
There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.
There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.
There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.
Nice market structureSeptember 1, 2020 at $500 ($2,500) defined the upper parallel and a good short entry point for the downward channel which lasted until the lower parallel was hit on September 8th at $330(recall that a day earlier TSLA fell -21%, the biggest drop in its history due to its failure to be included… Continue reading Third trend change in TSLA in September seems to be underway
This year has been devastating on a number of fronts: COVID, the rule of law, an explosion in debt, and now rational trading. Just as the Dow had become anachronistic and irrelevant as an index, now the S&P 500 fails to represent the broader market. Without FATMAN, that is FB, AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, AMZN and… Continue reading Insanity times 10
a record -$300 move from $1800.Within four hours of trading this Monday it was clear that this could be a pivot day as overvalued issues like SHOP, ZM, TSLA and others started to correct hard. SHOP hit -7.6% in the span of an hour. The most notable move was in Tesla, which was up over… Continue reading A real record
Not the whole pictureAs the Fed money printing eases, it is curious to see some issues still running higher. The present day 1920s RCA stock, TSLA, is of course the example that attracts all the media attention (and trading volume apparently as it now starts to push out AMZN in volume numbers). The 8x move… Continue reading Records and not so much
ignore the cracksThis week felt different. There have been days, within the last week or two, when things went down but they were inevitably met with the Pavlovian buying that has met all drops these past three months. Today felt different. Look beyond the leaders and other stocks are already starting to look like they… Continue reading Cracks in the ice
What more need be said?
Lower parallel to median line in one dayIt is my fault really. I did not pay attention to market structure closely enough and did not act quickly enough (or have stops in place). I simply did not expect after a negative week with the pre-market firmly down that issues would move from the lower parallel… Continue reading Euphoria squared
The inevitable bounce by mid-day was looking very wobbly before firming up by the end of the day (and week). Looking further out tech names, like everything else, were down but it is barely noticeable on most charts. Yes, oil names have been falling for a while but what is more striking is that non-tech… Continue reading Whimper
An over the air update will fix itAlthough the SPY was down –3% mid-morning, and although the FANG stocks were down on the whole, bubble names like ZM, PTON, SHOP, and PDD were up mid-morning. NKLA went from down to up. Sure, with the economy not likely to recover for at least 2 years, at… Continue reading Worst day since March
Don’t askIn an era where [M2 money supply growth] > [any previous money supply growth in recorded Fed history] the value of B. Comm. (Hons.) has not only depreciated but appears to be negative. That Dean’s Honour list is looking very tarnished. Analysis of any form will cost you money it seems. We saw this… Continue reading B. Comm. (Hons.) new math
Nothing to see hereHow curious. FB, AMZN and AAPL are up over 3%, MSFT and GOOGL are up almost 1% yet the overall market is down. Oil names are down, financials like JPM are down, GE is –5%, GM and FCAU, recently strong with autos, are down over –2%. SHOP, PTON, AMD, NVDA, NFLX and CVNA,… Continue reading FANG does not lead today
The general indices don’t tell the story as the SPY is up only 1%. Nor do the FANG stocks. Most today were up less than 1% (AMZN was up over 1% but still under 2%). Instead, it was what I consider the fringe Robin Hood type names that were moving today (those companies that don’t… Continue reading NKLA doubles
Despite the Dow’s 800 plus point move up today several overvalued names fell, which was interesting: falls in SHOP -1%, PTON -4%, BYND -2%, OKTA -3% and ZM -1% attracted my attention.GM was up over 4% while FCAU was up 5% but TSLA was up a less robust 2% despite NIO’s -6% fall today. Although oil… Continue reading FANG rose, thus the market
It does seem useful watching FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT and GOOGL for market direction. Yesterday they were weak and today they are all down mid-morning. While the losses are at most –1.6% or so, they do suggest weakness in other recent leaders could be the start of something. For example, WDAY –3%, OKTA –3.46%, NOW… Continue reading FANG could be leading the market
Records are being broken in the US equity market (this-is-the-greatest-50-day-rally-in-the-history-of-the-sp-500). Heavy intervention in credit and other markets, along with billions in corona virus payments which have flowed into equity markets, have resulted in an epic bounce. Naturally, euphoria brings forward head scratching valuation. Today’s entry briefly notes the state of ZM after earnings.The Internet bubble… Continue reading Zoom indeed
I put the website in the Feedly add source link and was able to get the blog working on Feedly and Reeder 4. Adding RSS feed in Feedly RSS feed in Reeder 4
When it works, iA Writer for iPad is brilliant as a writing tool. It harkens back to the age of the typewriter. The app allows you to focus only on entering text. By removing all UI elements from the screen, something Word and Pages cannot manage, and by presenting the active text line in the… Continue reading iA Writer impressions
[draft] One bright morning an unexpected web of shiny yellow police tape surrounded the apartment building down the street. Caught in the web were half a dozen police cars and officers scattered about the entrance. Cars nearby were entangled while officers redirected drivers hapless enough to approach. Everything was blocked. I went down the elevator… Continue reading Chapter 1: a web of yellow tape
Light flooded Sarah’s apartment. Floor to ceiling windows pressed in the heat of the afternoon. Returning from work she placed her mail on a pebble like silver dish atop the granite countertop with her long fingers and then flipped open her thin computer by the nook. The white notebook woke up. Her boyfriend, Carl, was… Continue reading Skype me
Warm sunshine cradled the room. Surrounded by greenery and glass, a light breeze weakly struggled to escape. By sitting quite still, the cat could recover memories of a world lost; the memories were faint and elusive, forcing the cat to pause. The light breeze calmly slipped inside, disappearing somewhere, perhaps up the tan wooden stairs.… Continue reading Tea leaves
Bright cold air greeted him this morning as he set out to work. He was undisturbed by the usual barking of dogs. They had the sense on a day like this to stay inside, folded between blankets like the Christmas flyers that entered his home, hiding, in the middle of his newspaper. A storm had… Continue reading The Present
“Yes, may I help you?” He was attracted by the elegant restraint of the store. Dark wood window displays quietly invited him to examine the dishes and cups nestled neatly inside in a leisurely manner. A pale blue milk jug filled with dried country flowers rested agreeably beside a finely carved wooden decoy duck inside… Continue reading Winter’s china
He grasped the central beam which separated the two sides of his window. Streaks of white paint on the edges of the glass attested to an earlier owner’s attempt at repainting the frame. The wooden frame had a metal pull at the centre of the bottom which was fastened by two flat screws. This too… Continue reading Moving in
I am attempting to write again and hope to have short stories of varying quality up shortly. Once organised I might even publish longer works. I hope you enjoy the site.
The last time bankers didn't destroy the economy A most interesting article by David Parkinson provides an example of the limits of central bank money printing (https://www.theglobeandmail.com). Essentially, two opposite considerations prevent the Bank of Canada from acting on interest rates. While equity bulls would want free money to infinity, the current 1.75% policy rate… Continue reading Canada reaches limits of money printing
Looks toppy This is a chart of the SPY versus GLD from stockcharts.com (https://stockcharts.com). The ratio was as low as 1.825 in September 2017 and as high as 2.529 in late September 2018. Since then, it has made lower highs, forming what is arguably an upper parallel line. This ratio formed very clear upward moves… Continue reading Upper parallel in SPY:GLD?
One is more precious than the other The outcome to date: TSLA ($404.04) market cap according to finviz.com is $73.09B with sales of $24B, forward P/E of 74.82, price 2.99 times revenue, ROA -2.7%, ROE -15.6%, ROI -2.6%, short float of 20.11% and performance during the quarter of 67.92%. GM ($37.26) market cap is $53.9B… Continue reading TSLA and GM
I. E. Pei never had this problem.
I love pediments.Covfefe?
https://twitter.com/SekWisniewski/status/1167158619227467777 This one is easy. Here is a story that illustrates the culture of Dairy Queen, owned by the legendary Warren Buffett (https://www.inc.com/jeff-haden/a-woman-pocketed-20-a-blind-man-dropped-then-a-dairy-queen-employee-did-something-remarkable.html). Musk is legendary in his own way as "a fraudster extraordinaire." The video, by the way, is a must watch: https://twitter.com/SekWisniewski/status/1167158619227467777. Can there by any surprise that one company incinerates value and customers,… Continue reading a tale of two CEOs
what is not like the other? (from @CharlieBilello who also has a very similar chart comparing JPM with EU banks) Elon Musk’s lie about “funding secured” and taking TSLA private at $420 was a significant market event and breach of norms rarely seen outside of micro caps. The de minimus reaction by the SEC and… Continue reading the tell
Felix qui nihil debet 