Best question of the year?

Although the year is not over, this question must be in the running: https://twitter.com/TheLastBearSta1/status/1438171695685283847

May bounce is over in July

Chart after chart had the same bounce in May which then ended in July. What makes this week notable is that even the leadership names like AAPL that had continued to power higher due to money flows have finally pivoted lower, following the correction in bubble names. One of the more dramatic charts in this…

Rally in quality

It seems the reddit crowd is losing influence as this week was more about a rally in quality (or at least profit making potential) than bubble names. AAPL, ABB, AMD, AMZN, APD, COST, FB, GE, GM, GOOGL, LIN, MA, MS, MSFT, NFLX, NOW, NVDA, OKTA, PFE, PYPL, SBUX, SHOP, V, VUG, were strong. The Bill…

Bucket shops and new leadership

The market did indeed bounce off critical lower parallel or price box support. Curiously, the SPY is making new highs even though this was a bounce off the lower parallel, not the upper parallel, for most names being followed (which means that what I have been following is actually yesterday’s news). Looking more closely, the…

AAPL continues to represent the market well

Once again it feels like AAPL is the most important chart of the week (setting aside the 10 year treasuries of course). AAPL’s breach of the lower parallel, for the first time since September, is the key data point it seems. Following the leader, of course, a mass of stocks followed AAPL in either breaching…

A change in AAPL

AAPL is a good summary of the entire market at the moment as it has been in an upward channel since September, it had hit its upper parallel in late January and is now nearly at its lower parallel. We see the same sort of pattern in ABNB, AMD, AMZN, NFLX, and PTON, at least…

Weekly chart review

The drop in mid-January has been completely erased in a lot of names in February in dramatic fashion with some of these issues, like WDAY, NOW and OKTA essentially going up every day in February. Other “innovation” names like UBER, LYFT, SHOP, PYPL, FCEL, BLDP and BE were very strong and making new highs. The…

Risk off

As I have been writing about for some time, the market has been rolling over. If you have time for only one chart, pay attention to the S&P500 falling below its 21 day moving average of prices a few days ago and today breaching its 50 day moving average (and while the most unfortunate inclusion…

A negative week in the markets (what’s that?)

On this first negative week in a long time there certainly does have the flavour of a trend change, at least based on Friday’s widely negative price action. But a chart of the VXX, not a perfect reflection of VIX but a good enough proxy for now, shows the volatility index still very much pinned…

Insanity times 10

This year has been devastating on a number of fronts: COVID, the rule of law, an explosion in debt, and now rational trading. Just as the Dow had become anachronistic and irrelevant as an index, now the S&P 500 fails to represent the broader market. Without FATMAN, that is FB, AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, AMZN and…

A real record

a record -$300 move from $1800.Within four hours of trading this Monday it was clear that this could be a pivot day as overvalued issues like SHOP, ZM, TSLA and others started to correct hard. SHOP hit -7.6% in the span of an hour. The most notable move was in Tesla, which was up over…

Records and not so much

Not the whole pictureAs the Fed money printing eases, it is curious to see some issues still running higher. The present day 1920s RCA stock, TSLA, is of course the example that attracts all the media attention (and trading volume apparently as it now starts to push out AMZN in volume numbers). The 8x move…

Cracks in the ice

ignore the cracksThis week felt different. There have been days, within the last week or two, when things went down but they were inevitably met with the Pavlovian buying that has met all drops these past three months. Today felt different. Look beyond the leaders and other stocks are already starting to look like they…

Best chart of the day

What more need be said?

Euphoria squared

Lower parallel to median line in one dayIt is my fault really. I did not pay attention to market structure closely enough and did not act quickly enough (or have stops in place). I simply did not expect after a negative week with the pre-market firmly down that issues would move from the lower parallel…

Whimper

The inevitable bounce by mid-day was looking very wobbly before firming up by the end of the day (and week). Looking further out tech names, like everything else, were down but it is barely noticeable on most charts. Yes, oil names have been falling for a while but what is more striking is that non-tech…

Worst day since March

An over the air update will fix itAlthough the SPY was down –3% mid-morning, and although the FANG stocks were down on the whole, bubble names like ZM, PTON, SHOP, and PDD were up mid-morning. NKLA went from down to up. Sure, with the economy not likely to recover for at least 2 years, at…

B. Comm. (Hons.) new math

Don’t askIn an era where [M2 money supply growth] > [any previous money supply growth in recorded Fed history] the value of B. Comm. (Hons.) has not only depreciated but appears to be negative. That Dean’s Honour list is looking very tarnished. Analysis of any form will cost you money it seems. We saw this…

FANG does not lead today

Nothing to see hereHow curious. FB, AMZN and AAPL are up over 3%, MSFT and GOOGL are up almost 1% yet the overall market is down. Oil names are down, financials like JPM are down, GE is –5%, GM and FCAU, recently strong with autos, are down over –2%. SHOP, PTON, AMD, NVDA, NFLX and CVNA,…

NKLA doubles

The general indices don’t tell the story as the SPY is up only 1%. Nor do the FANG stocks. Most today were up less than 1% (AMZN was up over 1% but still under 2%). Instead, it was what I consider the fringe Robin Hood type names that were moving today (those companies that don’t…

FANG rose, thus the market

Despite the Dow’s 800 plus point move up today several overvalued names fell, which was interesting: falls in SHOP -1%, PTON -4%, BYND -2%, OKTA -3% and ZM -1% attracted my attention.GM was up over 4% while FCAU was up 5% but TSLA was up a less robust 2% despite NIO’s -6% fall today. Although oil…

FANG could be leading the market

It does seem useful watching FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT and GOOGL for market direction. Yesterday they were weak and today they are all down mid-morning. While the losses are at most –1.6% or so, they do suggest weakness in other recent leaders could be the start of something. For example, WDAY –3%, OKTA –3.46%, NOW…